Everything flows, everything changes and flows quickly. On the Russian wind energy market, a favorable situation for the entry of new participants – investors, OEM and EPC-contractors, and all market participants, including developers, has dawned new opportunities and options for “profit-taking”
In the initial stage of the market competition is still quite low, which means that for investors the situation is favorable. In addition, the current model of legislation to support renewable energy in Russia, difficult only at a first glance, insures the investor from unexpected changes in the course and energy market conditions and ensures a return on investment and a stable profit for a long period.
In the most, perhaps, exclusive position are vendors – wind generators manufacturers, who have an international experience in localizing the production of components for their wind turbines. So far, no manufacturer from the “first global five” has officially declared on the market – everyone is waiting for answers from local partners, negotiations and taking corporate decisions at one or another stage. A step of a major player who can move quickly would give him tangible advantages, since the negotiating road to him had already been “trampled” by other large companies that for a long time “stood at the doorstep”
A convenient moment was created to enter the market of OEM companies of the “second echelon”. Paradoxically, the legislative high requirement for localization of component production contributes to this – 44% of the components of the wind generator (not to be confused with 65% of the wind farm) should be produced in Russia by 2019. Such companies are burdened with production support and cooperation with local power mashine building plant enterprises. Enterprises and factories are not ready to go on their own in a technology they do not know technologically, buying a license from OEM or designers, and supporting a technology partner to whom they can provide a powerful resource on the energy market. It will help them together to create flexible in the formation of their prices, and therefore strong joint ventures.
In the country, one wind farm is under construction – in the Ulyanovsk region, next year we can expect the construction of three immediately – in Adygea. While only one company in the national market has at least a small but still experience in designing wind farms, one company has a difficult experience in building foundations. There are no companies that can build the entire wind farm in complex, there are no EPC contactors, and in the world this market is highly competitive. It can be assumed that the companies of this sector of the wind energy business are waiting for the Russian market to appear to have taken place, which means that for those who have at least some significant links in the market, who knows the local construction norms, has personnel or partners, can get Jackpot and some time to use it. You just have to move the body.
It would seem that Russian developers are going through hard times. Large investors who appeared on the market recently do not want to pay a high price for wind park projects prepared with the “sight at their appearance” even 5 years ago. They want to develop their own wind parks themselves. But the very appearance of two large investors and the soon-to-be probable arrival of a third will raise competition for the volume of projects at the project selection competition to the market. At the same time, after the competition, wind parks need to be built on time, which means that sites must be prepared. It takes time to prepare sites for wind farms. From 2 to 3 years. And investors have no time enough for that as it is not surprising. Till 2024 it is necessary to prepare, and this means to make wind monitoring, necessary studies and pre-design works, coordination with supervisory structures, etc., purchase or lease land for more than 2,700 MW of wind farms! Large companies do not always do such a job quickly. Rather, on the contrary, for various reasons. Therefore, with a fairly high share of the probability, we can assume that investors still have to negotiate with the developers. The penalty for late comissioning of a wind farm is 5% of the total amount of the project’s capital expenditures. For a medium wind park with a capacity of 50 MW, this amount will be 375 million rubles (6 250 kEur). This means that it is not yet evening, as they say in the south.